Personal Survival Strategies in a Post-Employment World After 2035

The era of traditional employment is coming to an end. This isn't just about unemployment - we're entering a phase where we need to explore entirely different ways of living.

When discussing this with friends in China, I noticed many shared this concern, suggesting it's a global anxiety. I've been thinking about this topic a lot recently, so I decided to organize my thoughts.

The first half discusses how AI and robots will replace human workers, while the second half categorizes personal survival strategies. While the first half covers commonly discussed topics, I'm particularly interested in feedback on the second half.

The Replacement of Human Labor by AI and Robots by 2035

Selling one's labor in the job market has been an enormously popular "business model" throughout human history. Labor as a commodity had strong demand, and almost anyone could find someone willing to buy their work capacity in various forms. Even as cattle plowed fields, steam engines transported goods, and computers performed calculations, human labor remained in high demand due to its flexibility in meeting various needs.

The evolution and proliferation of AI and robots will dramatically change this situation. "Flexibility" is no longer exclusively human. Recent conversations with ChatGPT demonstrate knowledge far exceeding humans and the ability to respond to any conversation. Starting in 2025, as AI agents become widespread, AI will transform from mere chat partners to task executors, handling various requests like:

• "Handle XX's email correspondence"
• "Create YY's presentation materials"
• "Make a phone call about ZZ"
• "Process this month's expenses in the system"

Even more impressive are robots. In the US and China, driverless taxis have already begun operating, gradually taking over driving functions from humans. While this represents a significant physical function being transferred to machines, self-driving cars are limited to driving. The real game-changers are humanoid robots.

In recent years, companies like Tesla with Optimus and Figure (backed by OpenAI) have been developing humanoid robots in the US and China. These robots possess human-like motor abilities (or potentially superior abilities, similar to how recent robotic dogs are beginning to surpass real dogs in physical capabilities), equipped with the latest AI as their brain, functioning as physically mobile AI.

These robots can flexibly handle various physical tasks:

• "Go shopping and prepare dinner"
• "Take care of the children"
• "Work at construction sites"
• "Work at convenience stores"

Thus, AI and robots will eliminate humans' advantage in flexibility. Moreover, they're overwhelmingly cost-effective. For example, if a robot costs $67,000 with annual electricity costs of $6,700 and can work 24 hours for 5 years, the hourly wage equals $2.30. In fact, Tesla aims to price their robots under $33,500, which would make the hourly rate even lower.

Despite the value of human craftsmanship, such cost differences put human labor at a severe disadvantage. Robot testing will begin in 2025, with general sales starting in 2026. While they won't immediately match human capabilities, they should be widely adopted by 2035.

This might seem rapid, but what makes robots unique compared to previous technological innovations is their ability to self-replicate. Once humans create one robot, that robot can join production to create more robots. As robots multiply, they can produce even more robots, which in turn create more. 

Once this acceleration begins, having hundreds of millions of robots operating worldwide by 2035 becomes feasible. For reference, annual production currently reaches about 100 million cars and 1.5 billion smartphones.

(The specific timing of 2035 isn't crucial here - it's my personal estimate used for convenience, and it's a nice round number.)

Personal Survival Strategies

The crucial question is how we, as workers, should plan our survival strategies in a future where human labor becomes largely unsellable. While macroeconomic consideration for society is important, I'll focus on micro-level personal survival strategies in this article.

Current workers can pursue these strategies:

1. Secure niche markets within traditional employment
2. Start a business outside traditional employment
3. Make a living as an investor
4. Receive welfare benefits
5. Depend on someone else for support
6. Exit the monetary economy

This assumes a Japan post-2035 where AI and robots have largely replaced conventional human labor. (While the 10-year transition period offers various options, I believe choices will converge to these strategies after the transition.)

Personally, I envision combining strategy 2 (entrepreneurship) and 3 (investment), supplemented with aspects of strategy 6 (partial exit from the monetary economy).

Let's examine each strategy in detail. Please share if you think of other potential strategies.

Strategy 1: Secure Niche Markets Within Traditional Employment

Some employment opportunities will likely persist. (In this sense, this article's title is an exaggeration.)

Three categories of employment should remain:

1. Licensed Professionals
    (Doctors, lawyers, etc.)
2. Advanced Skills
   (Developing and mastering AI/robots with deep expertise, interpreting complex AI thinking for humans, etc.)
3. Communication-focused Roles
   (Childcare, elderly care, customer service, entertainment, etc.)

Licensed professions will remain human strongholds, but competition for medical and legal positions might increase tens of times over current levels.

Advanced skills and communication roles will eventually be replaced by robots but should last longer than other positions (perhaps until 2040-2045?).

Communication roles, in particular, will require many workers and have relatively low barriers to entry, making them a primary survival strategy for humanity in the near term. (However, this might lead to intense competition for these positions.)

ChatGPT's estimation for 2035 employment numbers:

• Total: approximately 14 million
• Licensed Professionals: 3-3.5 million
• Advanced Skills: 3-4 million
• Communication Roles: 5-6 million

With Japan's projected 2035 workforce of 60 million, this suggests 47 million could lose their jobs. Even if only 30% are unemployed by 2035, that's still about 14 million people.

To pursue this strategy:

• develop specialized expertise and professional credentials
• successfully navigate intense competition in these fields
  
  

Strategy 2: Start a Business Outside Traditional Employment

This should become easier than it is now. AI and robots will reduce initial capital requirements for starting businesses, and the massive social changes they trigger will create numerous business opportunities.

We'll likely see more people running smaller-scale businesses sufficient to support themselves and their families, rather than pursuing hundreds of millions in revenue. (For example, managing a small restaurant using robots for cooking and service seems feasible.)

Many current workers will need to attempt this transition, and some may achieve better living standards than their employment days. (Compared to selling one's time as an employee, successfully establishing something like the restaurant mentioned above could generate income with minimal personal labor, at least improving quality of life in terms of time freedom.)

To pursue this strategy:

• Develop entrepreneurial skills, knowledge, and experience
• Accumulate necessary funds and credit
• Identify business opportunities and conduct small-scale testing

Starting a business isn't as daunting as it might seem, with many established methodologies available to learn from.

Strategy 3: Make a Living as an Investor

I particularly recommend this strategy because I'm confident in the massive growth potential of AI and robotics, suggesting high returns on investments in these sectors.

NVIDIA's recent growth is well-known, and many believe (myself included) that this is just the beginning of the AI/robot revolution. If AI and robots grow enough to dominate the existing labor market, their business growth potential is staggering.

You don't need to be a professional investor - starting with stock investments within your means should suffice.

To pursue this strategy:

• Secure funds for investment (crucial)
• Learn basic investment principles
• Begin and maintain an investment practice

Strategy 4: Receive Welfare Benefits

Many people will either choose or be forced to adopt this strategy. Japanese citizens are fortunate to have this option through the social welfare system.

While Universal Basic Income might be considered as AI and robots eliminate jobs, I expect implementation to be gradual and limited due to funding issues. By 2035, we might see slightly expanded welfare programs rather than major systemic changes. Funding gaps might be addressed through increased taxation on companies profiting from AI/robot utilization.

To pursue this strategy:

• Research welfare system requirements
• Be prepared to use the system without hesitation when necessary

Strategy 5: Depend on Someone for Support

Similar to welfare but relying on family or others for support. This may be particularly relevant for generations not yet in the workforce by 2035, who might find other strategies challenging. In this sense, those already working by 2025 may have an advantage.

To pursue this strategy:

• Secure a support provider

Strategy 6: Exit the Monetary Economy

This involves pursuing self-sufficiency through agriculture and hunting-gathering. We might see more people adopting this strategy. With Japan's declining agricultural population and overall population decrease, securing enough land for self-sufficient food production isn't entirely unrealistic. (Japan's temperate climate and abundant water make this more feasible than in many other places.)

ChatGPT's estimation:

• 1-3 hectares (10,000-30,000㎡) of agricultural land and forest represents a realistic scale for nearly money-free, self-sufficient living in Japan
• While abandoned farmland might be nearly free, regular land could cost several million yen in rural areas or billions near urban areas

With commercial agriculture becoming increasingly robotized, selling surplus crops for cash will likely become nearly impossible due to significantly lower agricultural prices. Therefore, self-sufficiency needs to extend beyond food to encompass buildings, clothing, energy, and other necessities. Furthermore, there are still important challenges that need to be addressed, such as how to handle tax payments in this evolving landscape.

To pursue this strategy:

• Learn agriculture and hunting-gathering
• Accumulate funds for land purchase
• Obtain agricultural land ownership qualifications
• Learn self-sufficiency skills for food, clothing, shelter, and energy

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Writing this article has evoked both positive and negative emotions. While none of these strategies are easy, the AI/robot revolution seems unstoppable, necessitating choosing one for survival.

Which strategy would you choose?

I hope this article helps those feeling anxious about the future to calmly consider and act on their chosen strategy.